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KMID : 1170320090150020001
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Korean Journal of Health Economics and Policy
2009 Volume.15 No. 2 p.1 ~ p.20
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Forecasting future public health expenditures in consideration of population ageing
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Kang Seong-Mi
Lee Kyu-Sik
Jeong Hyoung-Sun
Song Yang-Min
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Abstract
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It would be the increase of the aged people which is the most frequently used for the forecast of health expenditure. The increase in the share of whole population by the elderly, however, does not necessarily all lead to the increase of health expenditure. Existing studies have shown that health status of the elderly or time to death have a more direct impact on the health expenditure. In forecasting the ’public health expenditure’ in 2050, the paper uses as a basic data per capita public health expenditures by age group of the OECD countries, and applies the hypothesis of ’healthy ageing’ and the theory of ’death related costs’. Population and non-population factors are delineated among impact factors upon the health expenditure. Public health expenditure in the share of GDP is projected to be 4.9% in 2050, maintaining the second lowest among OECD countries following Poland of 4.1%. This result based on the actual data of Korea confirms that OECD(2006) over-estimated the increase of public health expenditures in Korea. The paper also shows that the reduction of public health expenditures due to healthy aging amounts to 0.8% of GDP in OECD countries on average, suggesting that simple forecast of the elderly health expenditure by multiplying the number of the elderly in the future by per capita health expenditure by age at present would over-estimate the increase.
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KEYWORD
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public health expenditures, healthy ageing, death-related costs, forecast
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